以下是里昂证券针对2013-2014端游、页游和手游市场的预估：

We project a 23% revenue Cagr for China's online-gaming market over 2013-14. PC-installed games will continue to grow on resilient legacy titles, but web and mobile games will be the primary industry drivers. The newer segments complement rather than replace PC-based games as they target different users. With ample cash and defensive earnings growth, China's online-game developers should continue to outperform. We like NetEase, Changyou and Perfect World.

我们预计2013-14年，中国网络游戏市场营收的年复合增长率达到23%。电脑安装游戏将继续在原有老游戏的基础上波动的增长，但网页和移动游戏将是行业的主要驱动力。因为定位不同的用户群，客户端、网页和移动游戏将是划分整体网游市场而非取代原有客户端市场。随着充足的现金及具抗跌力的收入增长，中国的网络游戏开发商将继续跑赢大盘。

PC-based games - Slowing but resilient 客户端游戏-减速但弹性

We forecast PC-based revenue to enjoy an 18% Cagr in 2013-14 (down from 34% in 2006-11) to hit Rmb62bn, or 68% of the overall games sector.

我们预测客户端游戏营收在2013-2014将享有18%的年复合增长率(从06年至11年的34%下降)达到620亿人民币，占据整个游戏盘子的68%

The segment faces slowing growth in hardcore gamers and a lack of innovation.

客户端游戏还将面临核心玩家增长放缓和缺乏创新的问题

However, PC-based games remain viable as their sophisticated gameplay and profound storylines appeal to hardcore players.

然而，客户端游戏仍将是有存货空间的，因为其复杂的玩法和丰富的故事主线仍然收到核心玩家的青睐

Tencent and NetEase should continue to dominate this category.

腾讯和网易将继续统治客户端市场

Web games - A year of consolidation

网页游戏--稳固的一年

We expect web games to deliver a 27% revenue Cagr in 2013-14 to Rmb16bn, accounting for 18% of the online-gaming market.

我们预计网页游戏从13年到14年将以27%的年复合增长率达到160亿人民币，将占到整个网络游戏市场的18%

M&As are likely to increase as they allow newcomers to gain quick inroads.

企业并购的次数有可能因为越来越多的新进者的快速消耗而增加

Big developers such as the unlisted 7Road, Forgame and Mokylin could expand their market share. With the bar for success lifted, small operators are shifting to mobile.

大的开发商诸如第七大道，Forgame和墨麟集团将会扩张其市场份额，随着成功的门槛提升，小开发商们将转移向移动领域

Mobile games - A promised land? 移动游戏-乐土

Mobile games are likely to achieve a 51% revenue Cagr in 2013-14 to reach Rmb13bn.

移动游戏很有可能在2013-14年达成51%的年复合增长率达到130亿人民币的规模

They complement rather than replace PC-based games as hardware limitations keep them from providing the same player experience.

移动游戏更多的是补充客户端游戏而非取代，因为移动游戏终端硬件的局限性造成了在移动端和PC端的不同用户体验

The advent of cross-platform games will blur the line between PC/mobile games.

平台游戏的到来将模糊移动端与PC端之间的界限

PC-games developers under our coverage plan to launch their first mobile games this year, but a learning curve is inevitable.?

在我们覆盖范围内的客户端游戏的开发商将会在今年发布他们的第一款移动游戏，当然，学习成本是不可避免的

Qihoo(not rated)， HK-listed Tencent (O-PF) ?and NetDragon (not rated) are one of the few stocks investors can play the mobile game story.

360，腾讯和网龙是少数几个可以讲移动游戏故事的上市公司